RAILA ODINGA HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY AS UHURU KENYATTA

"We will not settle for perfunctory peace that is disrupted every five years by an election cycle, Uhuru Kenyatta confidently remarked at his first-term inauguration on 10 April 2013. "Rather, we are calling and working towards a permanent peace... A peace that fosters unity."

Since that day in Nairobi, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. Three years later though, even Uhuru himself must agree that a permanent peace remains perfunctory and unity is an illusion.

As Kenyans prepare for elections next August, the question is whether the ruling Jubilee Party under Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto have fulfilled the promise to foster peace and unity, or have promoted a hegemonic society in which a few have benefitted at the expense of the majority; and have allowed political wars to fuel divisions.

That Kenya is a class society is not a matter of argument. The country has some of the richest as well as some of the poorest people in the world. The gap between the rich and the poor is so wide that the country's top 10 percent households control 42 percent of total income while the bottom 10 control less than one percent according to a report by the Society for International Development.

Even with improvements that have taken place over the years, the majority of Kenyans still have no access to affordable health and quality education. More children from poor households are dying before they reach their fifth birthday than those from wealthy households.

And, while rich families can afford to send their children to good schools, poor children in some rural areas still study under trees. Millions of Kenyans eat poorly and subsist under squalid, subhuman conditions in hardscrabble townships that are expanding fast and getting more dangerous.

True, Kenyans have seen considerable progress under both President Mwai Kibaki and now Uhuru Kenyatta. Railway lines and roads have and are being upgraded and extended, airports have been refurbished and new ports are coming up. Women are benefitting from free maternity services; electricity connections have doubled; and primary school children are, for the first time, being educated freely and have access to digital learning instruments.

What we are not seeing is progress on the political front. It is in this front that unity is required to maintain peace. Since independence, the Kenya elite has deliberately and systematically promoted political polarization by perpetuating tribalism, ethnic fears and hatred.

Presently, the country is monstrously divided on tribal and party lines. The fractious relationship between the ruling party Jubilee and the opposition CORD stokes deep concern for national unity. And although no serious combustion of violence has occurred during Kenyatta's time, we have nevertheless, seen violent demonstrations that have led to loss of life and destruction of property.

Based on figures from the last elections, half of Kenya supports Kenyatta and the other half Raila Odinga. The situation is unlikely to change even with the political realignments we have seen in recent weeks.

If things are not managed properly, the country could be thrown into deeper, darker waters, and peace could be disrupted before, during, and after the next election circle.

My crystal ball tells me that Raila has a chance of winning the presidential contest next year as much as Uhuru if he can capitalize on the above issues as well as dwell on the rampant corruption that has now festered into a ripe boil under Kenyatta.

However, all depends on whether or not the polls will be free and fair. Past experiences cast such expectations into doubt.

I should mention that Kenya is entering the second part of its first century as an independent nation with great expectations for positive changes that can improve substantially the lot of underprivileged citizens.

If setbacks and mishaps continue, permanent peace and unity will continue to be a mirage.

And that is my say.

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ZIMBABWE'S UNCLE BOB TRUDGES ON DESPITE RIDICULE AND FAILING HEALTH

If there is one African leader who has persistently been vilified, decisively eviscerated by opponents, gleefully caricatured by cartoonists

and habitually "killed" by social media psychopaths, that leader is Robert Gilbert Mugabe.

There are reasons why the man called "Uncle Bob" appears to be a magnet of interest. But first an African proverb.

A tree full of fruits entices the highest number of strikes from passer-byes.

Uncle Bob is that tree.

After he took over as Prime Minister in 1980 and then President of Zimbabwe in 1987, the southern African country became a prosperous nation. He implemented a development plan and carried out sound policies that allowed agriculture, manufacturing, and mining to grow. He built health centers and schools in the rural areas and the country folk were happy. The economy was rolling at around 6 percent, one of the strongest in Africa.

Then in 2000, he nationalized big farms - 70 percent of the most arable land - owned by white people and distributed them to black Zimbabweans, or more precisely, former colleagues in the liberation army.

That is when hell broke loose.

As whites protested - and some left - accusing the President of racism, a rage-filled Mugabe tightened his hold on the country. The result is that the economy slumped, and last year it crashed to around 1.5 percent growth rate. Almost all the key sectors have collapsed following nationalization. The government can no longer pay salaries to civil servants; unemployment is unprecedentedly high; and the opposition is disabled.

This week the government suspended surgeries in public hospitals due lack of drugs, and people are on the streets protesting poor services and non-payment of salaries.

Until 2009 when the Zimbabwe dollar was suspended, the largest note had a face value of 100 trillion. Theoretically, every Zimbabwean was either a millionaire, a billionaire or a trillionaire. Cash was carried in sacks and wheel-barrows.

Today, Zimbabwe is the only African country using seven different currencies in its monetary portfolio - the South African Rand, the US Dollar, the Chinese Yuan, the Japanese Yen, the Australian Dollar, the British Pound, and the Euro.

Meanwhile, the African upper-crust of society - the gilded elite - who grabbed the white farms and left them to waste because of lack of farming and managerial skills, are unsurprisingly inviting back whites to return; surprisingly some of them are doing so.

Many feel the solution to Zimbabwe's current fiscal and political problems is for the pugnacious Mugabe to go. Mugabe refuses, saying his departure must be hinged on a democratic process. Unfortunately, democracy has entirely evaporated.

The problem for the opposition is that Uncle Bob and his ruling ZANU-PF keep on "winning" elections term after term. As a result, the opposition is broken, fatigued, and incapable under the current circumstances to do anything. To make it worse, the army is weak and corrupt.

The result? Zimbabwe is bleeding.

But the 92-year old former freedom fighter in failing health keeps on trudging on.

He spends millions of dollars on his and his wife's birthdays; travels the world like a spoilt despot; cares less whether peasants eat or not, or diplomats abroad are paid their dues. Whatever belongs to Zimbabwe belongs to him, his wife Grace, and his family.

His reputation as a feisty speaker against colonialism and imperialism is well-known, but the former school teacher has certainly reached his sale-by date, and should give way to a younger leader who can rekindle the old Zimbabwean charm.

To those who wish him dead, Mugabe sarcastically tells them: "I have died many times. I have actually beaten Jesus Christ because he only died once."

To Uncle Bob I say this: Africa still needs you, but it needs you far away from power.

And that is my say.

KENYA'S POLITICAL 'BATTLE OF THE TITANIC' ONLY A YEAR AWAY

After the weekend of political jamborees, defections, financial wastages, hyperboles, and sideshows, the race for the 2017 general elections in Kenya has begun in earnest.

In the remaining eleven months until the watershed August polls, there will be elevated rhetoric, hate speeches, and even (God forbid) violence, as Uhuru Kenyatta struggles against fierce opposition to retain the presidency for a second five-year term.

It is clear now, after the successful opposition rally in Mombasa over the weekend, that Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement, not Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper Party, not Moses Wetangula of Ford Kenya, will be the presidential candidate for the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD).

Officially, the event was to celebrate the 10th anniversary of ODM, but the optics pointed to a coronation ceremony for the former political detainee.

Raila is 71 years old and this could be his last chance to State House. He has missed the presidency three times. We have to wait and see if he will succeed this time around. For him, this is a do-or-die battle.

This week, Raila and a team of 50 of his officials are leaving for a retreat in Germany to strategize. No details are forthcoming as to who is funding the trip and why they have to go all the way to Europe to brainstorm about the forthcoming polls. What is known is that Raila schooled in Germany, speaks German fluently, and has lots of friends there he can call upon to bankroll the stay

If Uhuru loses, he will be the first president in Kenya's history to rule for only one term.

In 2007 Kenya rode through a major crisis after Raila alleged theft of votes by Kibaki. Over a thousand people were killed in post-election violence that followed. He repeated similar charges in 2012 when he battled Uhuru. That time around, common sense prevailed and no serious cases of violence occurred.

That Kenyans and the world are worried about the fate of the next Kenyan elections is not a secret. The political temperatures are high and are likely to climb further as the election approaches. A taste of that was seen a few days ago when Uhuru and Raila exchanged nasty words during the funeral of a veteran Maasai politician, William Ole Ntimama.

The good news is that both Uhuru and Raila have publicly pledged to avoid violence next time around. The question is whether they can contain their overzealous supporters from engaging in looting and destruction of property.

Uhuru has made it clear that he wants to keep the presidency in the Jubilee stable well beyond 2017, and has already picked up his successor, deputy president William Ruto. But 2022 is too far away and anything could happen, depending also on whether or not Uhuru will retain his seat next year.

Of course Uhuru surrogates, beneficiaries of government tenders and favors, as well as elements that have made corruption a career, would not want to see Uhuru leave office any time soon.

In recent years, corruption has taken a huge leap for the worst. The malaise started during Mzee Jomo Kenyatta; it deepened during 24 years of President Daniel Arap Moi's rule; spiraled when Kibaki was in power for eight years; and has multiplied exponentially in the last four years.

The situation is so bad that even Moi - who many consider to have presided over the most corrupt regime so far - remarked earlier this year

that corruption had become "a national security threat".

Back to the elections. The ICC has already warned that it wouldn't hesitate to prefer charges against anyone who would be involved in any type of activity that could be classified as crime against humanity. After the nasty experience that led to six top Kenyan officials going to the ICC - Uhuru being one of them - I doubt Kenyans would want to go through that again.

It is imperative therefore that leaders and their supporters show tolerance and restrain from now, and all the way to election time and beyond.

And that is my say.

TANZANIA'S MAGUFULI MUST ABANDON ISOLATIONISM AND JOIN THE REST OF THE WORLD

Almost a year after Pombe Magufuli took over leadership, questions are arising as to where he is taking Tanzania, one the most respected countries in Africa.

Recent events show the President of the East African country is gradually but surely moving towards the realm of despotism.

He is suppressing press freedom, muting criticism, and strangling the opposition. Two months ago, the managing editor of the Mwananchi, a daily Kiswahili newspaper, and a reporter under him, were summoned by the police for interrogation after publishing a story criticizing law enforcement. That move has thrown journalists into a state of panic, forcing them to self-censor for fear of reprisal.

In April, the President shut down broadcast coverage of the National Assembly proceedings making it impossible for Tanzanians to follow and audit their members of parliament through House debates that for years were disseminated by the national broadcaster, the TBC. The government blamed rising costs of broadcasting as the reason for ending the coverage, but analysts think the closure had everything to do with Magufuli's disdain for press freedom.

The recent decision to ban opposition activities outside Parliament is another misstep on the part of Magufuli. Consequently, the opposition cannot now mobiliz

e, raise funds, or hold rallies until the 2020 elections. In effect, Magufuli is killing the opposition.

Although Tanzania was known to be intolerant to criticisms even during its socialist days, Magufuli's current adventure threatens the nation's political stability as the opposition warns of civil disobedience.

And that is not all. Magufuli is also fighting a cyberspace war against bloggers and commentators who are bashing his government. At least one person was recently convicted for calling Magufuli "an idiot" on Facebook. Many are already calling him a dictator.

In all the matters mentioned above Magufuli is wrong. He is not only violating basic freedoms of association, media, and expression, but he is also moving the country too far to the left, taking the country backwards when the rest of Africa and the world are moving forward towards entrenching democracy.

Of course, the Tanzanian leader must be commended for coming out strongly against corruption, ineptitude, and indiscipline in the civil service, but the reputation he is building for himself is of man who is striving hard for populism. That he is a diehard Nyerereist is not in doubt. But even Julius Nyerere himself was moving away from the constrictive socialist policies in the years prior to his death in 1999.

Last week, Magufuli went on an attack against an unnamed super-power for involvement in Syria, Libya, and Somalia, a move analysts say was quiet undiplomatic. Everyone knew he was talking about the United States.

And he was not addressing a learned group of people at a forum, but to wananchi (ordinary citizens) who would rather want to hear about "bread and butter" issues than matters of geopolitics that add no ugali (maize meal) to their lunch plate.

Two weeks ago, eyebrows were raised when Magufuli failed to attend an important meeting in Nairobi, the Tokyo International Conference on African Development which was attended by 34 heads of state and business leaders across the globe. He did not give any reason for non-attendance at the conference just a few hundred miles across the border, which had much to do with trade and development than with international politics.

The Tanzania skipped the all-important World Trade Organization conference in Nairobi last December; the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) also in Nairobi, as well as an African Union meeting in Addis Ababa in January and the 27th AU Summit in Kigali in July. In the region he has visited only Rwanda and Uganda.

If Magufuli wants to help his people prosper, he must abandon isolationism and join the rest of the world which is now a global village.

And that is my say.