SHAM NOMINATIONS IN KENYA HAVE YIELDED MANY BOGUS 'WINNERS'

If what happened in party nominations during the past few weeks is the precursor of what is ahead, then the August 8 Kenya general elections could turn out to be a much troubled exercise.

In pluralistic societies, party primaries are supposed to mirror the real elections. They are supposed to be free and fair; devoid of rigging and cheating. They are supposed to give the electorate the first opportunity to separate the wheat from the chaff and pick the best candidates based on the social, economic and political indicators they have set for themselves.

Usually, ordinary members, not political party leaders, control the process. They are the ones who dictate policies and strategies best suited to their interests.

The only role party leaders, including local officials, play is that of providing polling venues, ballot papers, and other requirements as may be needed for a smooth exercise, and for them to be present for counting and tallying of votes.

Nominations are not an exercise in manipulation, patronage, nepotism, or favors.

However we saw in the Kenya nominations a deliberate pattern of machinations, fraud, interferences, and political intrigues, that appear to have rendered the process a sham in most areas.

While in a few areas the exercise was conducted diligently and professionally, in many parts polling was accompanied by violence, threats, vote stealing, vote manipulation, and blatant disregard for party rules. The result is that many bogus candidates "won" when they should have lost and vice versa.

In one Nairobi constituency, a loser needed only to camp at party offices and cry all day long to back his claim that he won. There was no recount of votes, no poll repeat, nothing. At the end of the day, the cry baby jubilantly left with the nomination certificate in his pocket.

In other cases, protests and violent skirmishes led to overturning of poll results making losers winners and winners losers.

In addition, favored candidates were given direct nominations and sailed through to the general elections unchallenged - an "affront" to democracy, as the Daily Nation once said.

Since the polls, dozens of "losers" have lost confidence in their parties and have crossed the isle to stand either as independents or as aspirants in other parties.

This has created major splits in both the ruling Jubilee party and the opposition NASA coalition - splits which will most likely resurface in a big way in the polls and cause unexpected upsets.

Overall, what happened in the primaries do not augur well for peaceful elections that are only three months away.

I hope Kenyans will use this short time until August to reflect on the future of their country, and come to terms with the fact that only a credible election will save the country from chaos.

And that is my say.

Please note that this page will rest until further notice.

KENYAN NOMINATIONS: CHOOSING THIEVES AND LAND-GRABBERS

In a few days, the contentious - sometimes violent - party nominations ahead of Kenya's forthcoming general elections will come to an end and the final and most delicate leg of the political phase will begin.

During the past three weeks, Kenyans have invested substantial time and emotions in the exercise to nominate the best party candidates for the big contest on August 8.

In the process some people have lost their lives and others injured as rivals have gone for each other's throats to secure a place in the ballot box in what is destined to be the most bitterly-contested election in recent history.

This level of antagonistic behavior among aspirants and their followers has never been seen before in an exercise of this nature.

What this is doing is to push Kenya closer to what many think could happen in four months time: an all-out mayhem between winners and losers.

We seem to be getting a taste of that in these primaries as losers violently complain of being rigged, and leaders inciting followers to take the law into their own hands.

Also unprecedented in the nomination stage has been the level of corruption and bribery. Some aspirants have been caught on camera dishing out cash to scrambling wananchi in violation of the law. Some of those caught red-handed have gone to great lengths to deny what was the obvious. Their denials, however, have not erased the fact that corruption and bribery have now become a way of life in Kenya's electoral process.

There have also been reports of blatant rigging. In some areas, votes cast have far outnumbered registered voters; in others, people have not found their names in registers; in others, people whose names are missing in registers have been allowed to vote. In some cases, ballot papers have been marked in advance.

Rigging aside, what has been most obvious in these primaries is the fact that even the rich and famous can be vulnerable. By Wednesday, five County Governors, scores of Members of Parliament and Senators, and hundreds of County Assembly members had lost their positions, floored by less endowed individuals, in some cases, complete neophytes.

In the past, rich candidates have used their financial might to influence the outcome of elections. It is a little different this time around, at least in these nominations.

Some of the losers are top stalwarts of the two main political groups, Jubilee and NASA; some even close allies of the two main contenders, Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga. This is a clear signal that this year the elections could sink more than the usual average of 70 to 75 percent of elected officials in the legislative bodies.
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It has not surprised anybody though that some of the most notoriously corrupt individuals have been favored by voters. Some of these people have stolen billions of shillings from public coffers.

With their stolen money, they are now only one step away from becoming "honorable" members of Kenya's political establishment. There, they will use their positions to loot some more and further impoverish the country.

For the second time since the enactment of the current constitution in 2010, the political establishment has ignored the provisions of Chapter 6 of the constitution which sets integrity guidelines for elected officials.

As a result, the Kenyan legislative chambers will, once again, harbor the corrupt, thieves, land-grabbers, and other criminals.

With a situation like that, Kenyans have no reason to expect change in governance.

And that is my say.

KENYA OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS WAIT FOR THE WHITE SMOKE AS LAWLESSNESS SPREADS

Anyone following the political developments in Kenya must be worried, very worried, about the state of lawlessness as the country approaches a consequential general election less than four months away.

Attempted assassinations, kidnappings, physical fights, hate speech, and intolerance of opposing views, have taken center stage, a precursor of what many, inside and outside the country, fear could be the beginning of the country's decline into widespread violence come election time.

The use of guns, especially, is most terrifying. A few days ago, an aspirant was shot on the ear; vehicles have been sprayed with bullets; and in a few cases, people have drawn pistols in public areas to scare off opponents. Several victims are lying in hospitals battered by political hooligans.

This week the crack General Service Unit was deployed to hot-spots to stop a further deterioration of the situation.

Most of the internecine activities have taken place around the ODM party nominations. In the next few days, the ruling party, Jubilee, will begin its own primaries with thousands of aspirants scrambling for a chance to represent the party in various positions.

Things do not look good there either.

Anxiety among opposition supporters has been heightened by the coalition's inability to agree on its flag-bearer. Until this week, there were four people vying for the broader NASA coalition presidential ticket: Raila Odinga of ODM; Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper Democratic Party; Musalia Mudavadi of ANC; and Moses Wetangula of Ford-Kenya.

Now, the bumptious Isaac Rutto of the Mashinani Party has joined the group, further complicating the selection process.

A special committee formed a few weeks ago by NASA to identify a candidate made recommendations, but those recommendations were rubbished by some of the principals, necessitating a series of meetings among the candidates themselves in secluded resorts in Mombasa.

Hopes are high among opposition supporters that at today's meeting - to be attended by all the five leaders and aspirants from across the country - a flag-bearer will be declared, and thus bring to an end what seems like a crisis of leadership in the opposition.

But Kenyans have been disappointed before, and as they say, it ain't over till the fat lady sings. Many hope she will sing loudly this time around.

At least one American non-government organization specializing in poll monitoring has warned Kenya about the dangers that lie ahead unless radical steps are taken to calm the swirling tension.

Peace-loving Kenyans are also holding their breath and praying for a smooth exercise, away from what happened in 2007/2008 when more than a thousand people were killed in election related violence.

Politicians must realize August 8 is not the end of the world. Opportunities still exist in future.

It is obvious, however, that more than any other election in recent history, what we are seeing this year is a high decibel, high-stakes exercise.

President Uhuru Kenyatta is under siege and is pushing all buttons to halt the advancement of the opposition. His unrelenting and frequent forays in

to ODM strongholds like the Coast and Nyanza underscore his determination to break a long-standing jinx which has made it difficult for incumbents to attract votes from certain parts of the country.

If Uhuru loses, he will be the first one-term president in Kenya's history, hence the unbridled determination.

As for the opposition, a loss will extinguish all hopes of dismantling the tribal dynasties that have been part of governance since independence.

And that is my say.

SHOULD KENYA LEGALIZE MARIJUANA?

Should it or should it not be legalized? That is the question.

I am talking about marijuana, of course.

The question as to whether cannabis sativa should be freed from the law in Kenya is not new. It is a question that has been raised many times before, but ignored.

Kenyan authorities now have a good reason to listen and act on whether to legalize the substance known variously as weed, bangi, hashish, pot, ganja, and so on (depending on the region of the world you come from), or not.

I say so because this past week legalization advocates appeared before the Senate Health Committee of the Kenya National Assembly to plead their case and present a petition of 1,500 signatures intended to pressurize the government to scrap the ban under the Narcotic Drugs Psychotropic Act of 1994. This is the first time the subject has ever reached the national stage.

Proponents of the intoxicant claim by prohibiting it the government was going against African tradition. They claim weed has been used for generations as part of ritual ceremonies. Yet surveys show only four percent of people in the rural areas in Kenya use marijuana compared to 11% in urban areas.

Those opposed to legalization argue the drug is a health hazard and a threat to national security since smokers are allegedly more prone to criminal activities than non-users. They say it contributes to mental illness and anti-social behavior.

Kenyans have been growing and selling bangi for decades. Many people have been arrested and jailed. The increasing international demand for the drug has created big-time traffickers and has emboldened farmers who see no hope in conventional crops to grow the plant for easy, big money.

NACADA, the National Authority on Campaign Against Drug Abuse has been unable to cope with the menace due to lack of staff and finance. An estimated 700,000 Kenyan youth are wasting away as a result of drug use. Many of them start with marijuana and graduate to hard drugs such as heroine and cocaine. So, this is no longer a small problem for Kenya.

In some States in the United States marijuana is no longer considered dangerous. Anyone can buy and smoke marijuana openly in at least nine States. "Dispensaries" are also open for those who want it for medicinal use.

In return, the country is earning billions of dollars in revenue from taxes. As more States legalize the drug, it is anticipated the country could earn up to USD20.2b in revenue by the year 2021.

Kenya must decide whether it wants to continue adhering to what some call "colonial" law, or move forward with other countries in the world and tap into this drug. Kenya boasts one of the best strains of marijuana called landrace which has high medicinal qualities. It could be an economic game changer for a country that depends on agriculture and tourism for its foreign exchange earnings.

Already African countries like Nigeria, Lesotho, and Zambia, are seriously thinking about legalizing the product. In Lesotho, cannabis is the country's third largest source of foreign income and is responsible for 70% of all cannabis entering South Africa.

For Kenya, deciders will have to choose between the economic benefits anticipated from open sales and social welfare of its people. It is not an easy decision but for many reasons it must be made, the sooner the better.

And that is my say.

KALONZO MUSYOKA'S PRESIDENTIAL GOAL UNTENABLE

As widely expected, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, leader of the opposition Wiper Democratic Party, appears ready to activate plan B in his determination for a second stab at the presidency in the August 8 general elections in Kenya.

The former vice president in Mwai Kibaki's government who has been haggling for months for a chance to lead the NASA brigade has for sometime been wary of a plot to relegate him to the side bench behind the more assertive and popular Raila Odinga who desires to make his forth attempt at the top job.

Because Raila trashed the nebulous MOU between ODM and Wiper which would have given him a chance to be the flag-bearer, Kalonzo felt betrayed. He is now expected to make the break to stand either alone in Wiper or in a coalition with another yet-to-be-known entity.

But the question is: what are his chances outside NASA?

The answer is: none. Why? because Kalonzo's path to the presidency is riddled with a myriad of pitfalls.

One, lack of national appeal. Despite his presence in the political arena for 32 years, Kalonzo remains detached from the vote-rich areas of Central, Nyanza, and the Rift Valley. His affable, non-combative demeanor in a country where belligerence and defiance are considered prime leadership qualities, has betrayed him. He lacks the punch to excite crowds and the charisma to attract new supporters. Even his arguments during the Jeff Koinange Show this week fell short of a man ready to lead.

Two, Kalonzo has been unable to shake off the "watermelon" tag. Consequently his loyalty to the opposition alliance NASA has raised critical questions. Raila supporters, in particular, do not trust him and see him as a zelig who could easily change colors and cross the isle. That distrust started when he abandoned Raila and ran away with party documents in 2007, and it escalated when he accepted to be Kibaki's deputy the following year against public opinion.

Three, support in his own Ukambani backyard is wishy-

washy. Unlike Raila who maintains a solid base in his Nyanza region and elsewhere, Kalonzo is unable to unite the Kamba people behind him. The region is fractious and incorrigibly disunited. Those divisions have weakened his grip on Ukambani and reduced him to a diffident fire-fighter. His Wiper Party is fissured and fractured and some of his closest advisers have abandoned him. Without a coherent home base, a national reach is difficult to achieve.

All these factors and others make Kalonzo potentially unelectable as president now and even in the immediate future.

To try to achieve his goal outside NASA is but a waste of time. Maybe Kalonzo should abandon his presidential ambition altogether and concentrate on nuts and bolts of nation-building. To do that, he must come down a notch or two from his perch at the top.

Like Martha Karua who unsuccessfully contested the presidency and lost and is now contesting for the governorship of Kirinyaga, Kalonzo too - if he wants to serve his people - must look at the gubernatorial seat in his area as a viable alternative.

Perhaps he should borrow a leaf from Hilary Clinton who moved downwards after losing the presidential contest to take a position as a Cabinet Secretary then shifting back to the presidential race in 2016.

Kalonzo would be much more useful as Governor than as deputy president in any administration.

In any case he was there holding a position that is not only chaffy but uninspiring.

As one American vice president once said: the vice presidency is not worth a bucket of warm piss.

At least as Governor he can actively chart the path to development for his people, shape the future of the upcoming generations, and leave a legacy for others to emulate.

Otherwise, he will be just another wannabe.


And that is my say.

KENYANS DONT EAT TAR OR GOBBLE MEGAWATTS

In the early seventies,, Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Njoroge Mungai, was asked by his Dagoretti South constituents what he had done for them to deserve re-election as their Member of Parliament.

The good doctor thought for a moment then pointed in the direction of Kenyatta Conference Centre and said: "I brought you UNEP"!

What followed was a deepening silence then an explosion of chuckles mixed with a paroxysm of laughter. "Daktari," they told him: "We don't eat buildings."

This may be an exaggerated version of what actually took place, but the story line is genuine and the content is accurate.

Dr. Mungai was not re-elected in 1974, but that encounter with his constituents was a humbling experience for President Jomo Kenyatta's first cousin who was used to pampering and political patronage.

The meaning of the story? People need more than concrete to survive.

As they crisscross the country, Jubilee leaders are bloviating about the Chinese-built Standard Gauge Railway line, the number of kilometers of tarmacked roads they have built, and about the millions of homes they have wired for electricity.

That's fine but Kenyans neither eat tar nor gobble megawatts.

What people want answered are the following questions:

One, why are the prices of maize meal, milk, and sugar so high today than they were in 2013? For the majority of Kenyans, paying Shs60 for milk, Shs140 for sugar and Shs140 for a two-kilogram of maize meal is a challenge.

Two, what has the government done to deal with the spiraling unemployment? Jubilee's promise of creating 5,000 jobs in five years has flopped. More than 35% of youthful Kenyans are jobless and have no hope of securing employment any time soon.

Three, why do so many Kenyans go to bed hungry? More than a third of our people are starving and dying of hunger and the government appears to be doing nothing serious about it.

Four, affordable health care. Why are Kenyans still dying of preventable diseases? Kenyans are perishing in their thousands from malaria and TB, deaths which could be avoided. In total, thirteen percent of Kenyans cannot afford medical care. Where is the government?

Those are the bread and butter issues candidates scrambling for leadership must be tackling, not arguing over the kilometer length of the road network. Whether Jubilee government has built 6,000km of roads or 1,500km is neither here nor there.

Bottom line our leaders have failed us, again.

As Kenyan skies buzz with shiny helicopter blades, and roads choke with high-powered motor guzzlers in this campaign season, the only thing poor folks can do is to line up for hand-outs and hope for the best.

By 6pm on August 8 when all the polling polls are closed, those bumptious wananchi who have been hauling opprobrious attacks against opponents in defense of their candidates will saunter home empty handed to begin another five years of poverty and misery.

And the big guys? They will fade into oblivion not to be seen again until 2022.

And that is my say.

KENYAN OPPOSITION IN A QUANDARY OVER TOP GUN

It is not difficult to understand the unrelenting conundrum that has befallen the four gentlemen at the head of the opposition NASA coalition in Kenya.

For months, representatives of partner parties have been meeting behind closed doors to try to untether the critical question of who, among them, will fly the opposition flag in the August 8 elections against the ruling coalition.

Any one of the four qualifies to sit at State House. The question is: who is the most potent? Who among them has the kind of support across the ethnic divide and carries a knock-out punch to upend Jubilee out and send home Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto?

In the absence of a scientific study this question may not be easy to answer, and the usually biased opinion polls are not in a position to help. Nevertheless, because each one of them brings to the table unique leadership qualities the choice must depend not on perceived public support of any particular candidate but on goodwill and compromise.

Only one person can occupy the Executive office. But in democracies all over the world, and for the sake of national unity, close allies are often accommodated in special arrangements to reinforce governance and address the expectations of coalition partners.

This seems to be the likely path NASA will follow. From a constitutional point of view, two of the four already have a place on the high table as President and Deputy President. It could be assumed an understanding may be in the works for a special position of Prime Minister and for the creation of an enhanced role for the fourth partner.

Obviously this arrangement has the potential of congesting the top and even unleashing schisms, if not properly handled. But if Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula, are determined to maintain their unity as they say they are - and have the desire to vanquish Uhuru - then concessions must be factored in.

However, for now, settling on a compromise candidate remains a juggernaut for the expanded opposition organization. Each one of them wants to be the boss not an underling.

Unfortunately, this procrastination is frustrating supporters and eating up time. I am not surprised it's causing so much public speculation over NASA's unity and survival.

From my small magnifying glass this is how I see this play out among the candidates based on media reports.

Raila will easily sweep the larger Nyanza; take two-thirds of Western votes; take two-thirds of the Coast, half of the Rift Valley, North-Eastern and Eastern regions, and capture at least 50% of Nairobi. He will collapse badly in Kikuyuland.

Kalonzo, on the other hand, will raid the Eastern votes - despite the minimal opposition there; capture a quarter of Nairobi; get a quarter of the Coastal and North-Eastern votes; but flounder miserably in Nyanza, Western and Central.

Musalia and Wetangula will just toggle along and divide the remaining portion of the splintered Western votes in the region and in the Luhyia Diaspora.

So, what does this mean? It means Raila remains the man to beat. If Kalonzo is included in the ticket as Deputy President, the game could be over early in a free and fair election.

But a consensus must be reached so that NASA can go to the elections as a unified force. The insistence by individual parties that "its our way or the highway" threatens to torpedo everything the group has worked for.

If Raila for some reason decides to drop out in favor of any of the three, then whoever is NASA's top gun will give Jubilee a run for its money. But that proposition of dropping out appears untenable.

Another thorny issue facing the opposition surrounds the nomination process. There are those who want an open process where all parties compete at the grassroots and come up with one unified candidate, and those who prefer that NASA fields one candidate per seat to avoid competition and acrimony in the primaries.

This is a perennially tricky issue facing parties and NASA must face it now.

In my opinion, this is the issue which will determine whether or not a unified NASA will win majority seats and take control of Parliament, the Senate, and County Assemblies.

Personally, I prefer that everyone participates in the nominations and whoever wins carries the banner. It makes no sense to reprise old unworkable methods that have resulted in loss of seats to appease a few who want to

shun competition. Let democracy prevail.

And that is my say.